Crypto market prediction ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting

The crypto market climbed 0.72% to $2.2 trillion over the past 24 hours as major digital assets rebounded ahead of the FOMC meeting. Investors are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 policy meeting, a decision that could set the tone for short-term market direction. Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied on renewed regulatory optimism following CLARITY Act developments, even as concerns over inflation and interest rates continue to weigh on sentiment.

This will be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting since taking office in May. At the June meeting, the central bank held rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range. Warsh has since signaled that policymakers have little tolerance for persistently high inflation and remain committed to restoring price stability.

Federal reserve interest rate expectations and key exceptions

CME FedWatch uses 30-day federal funds futures to gauge market expectations for the Fed’s policy decisions. Recent pricing showed roughly a 34.7% probability of a rate hike in July and a reading that falls short of a clear market consensus. Still, these expectations can shift quickly in the days leading up to the policy meeting.

New data on inflation, employment, spending, and growth could easily move this outlook. Oil prices and geopolitical developments stand out as key exceptions, since either could reignite inflationary pressure.

Warsh, for his part, has avoided committing to any specific policy direction. Instead, he has urged investors to focus on incoming economic data rather than lean on forward guidance.

How the FOMC meeting decision could affect crypto markets

An unexpected rate hike, or unexpectedly hawkish commentary, could push Treasury yields higher and put pressure on cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP may see sharper volatility around the announcement of the FOMC meeting.

Crypto-linked stocks could react strongly too. Coinbase (COIN) recently closed near $157, Strategy near $95, and Robinhood (HOOD) near $100.

Lower rate expectations tend to lift sentiment around these companies, while higher borrowing costs can weigh on trading activity, valuations, and demand for speculative assets. This is how an FOMC meeting can affect the crypto market.

CLARITY Act progress supports crypto market optimism

The CLARITY Act has emerged as another key catalyst ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. The proposed bill seeks to establish clearer regulatory guidelines for digital assets and aims to divide oversight responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC.

Recent progress on the bill’s ethics provisions has boosted market confidence, lifting sentiment around Bitcoin, ETH, and crypto-linked stocks. Even so, the legislation continues to face pushback over stablecoin reward incentives, questions of government ethics, and unresolved enforcement standards.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled that a final vote is unlikely before the summer recess, noting he is reluctant to begin the Senate floor process while lawmakers are away from Washington. Further legislative progress could strengthen institutional confidence in crypto markets, while continued delays risk weighing on the broader market recovery.

Crypto market prediction for major coins 

BTC price analysis

Bitcoin has posted a negative performance this week, falling by more than 2.60% on Monday alone. Amid this decline, BTC has slipped below the $64,000 mark and appears to be heading toward the $63,000 support level.

If buyers fail to defend this level, the price could extend its fall toward the psychological support of $60,000.

On the flip side, if BTC rebounds and reclaims the $67,000 level, it could pave the way for a move toward $70,000.

ETH price analysis

Ethereum has remained under pressure for the past two days, slipping below the $1,900 mark. If the price holds above the $1,800 support level, it could stage a recovery and continue its recent bullish trend.

However, if ETH breaks below $1,800, buyers may find themselves in a difficult spot, and a loss of this level could flip the short-term trend from bullish to bearish.

XRP price analysis

XRP has faced heavy selling pressure over the past few months, though the downtrend appears to be finding support just above the $1 level. On the daily timeframe, the token has formed a descending triangle pattern.

A confirmed breakout above $1.18 could trigger strong bullish momentum for XRP. Conversely, a break below the psychological $1 support could expose the token to a deeper bearish move.

Final thoughts

The crypto market is standing at a crossroads as the July 28–29 FOMC meeting approaches. With Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s stance still leaning on incoming data rather than forward guidance, traders should brace for volatility in either direction. A hawkish surprise could send Bitcoin toward its $60,000–$63,000 support zone, while a dovish tilt could open the path back toward $67,000–$70,000.

Ethereum’s $1,800 support and XRP’s descending triangle setup near $1 are equally worth watching, since a breakdown in either could drag broader market sentiment lower heading into the rate decision. On the regulatory side, continued progress on the CLARITY Act remains a longer-term tailwind for institutional confidence, even if a final Senate vote looks unlikely before the summer recess.

For now, traders should treat these levels as reference points, not guarantees that the markets can swing sharply around Fed decisions, and both bullish and bearish scenarios remain firmly on the table.