Bitcoin price has dropped by 49% from its all-time high. It has kept falling by forming lower lows and lower highs.
The price has dropped below the key moving averages and trading in a consolidation zone on a daily time frame.
Cryptocurrency analyst Noname has warned that Bitcoin may not have found its cyclical bottom yet, arguing that the current sideways price movement is misleading investors.
In a detailed market outlook, Noname described this period of apparent stability as a “fake stability” phase, one that has historically preceded further declines rather than signaled genuine recovery.
A market analyst suggests the BTC price could drop to $50K and rebound to $100K.
Analyst Noname has laid out a month-by-month roadmap for Bitcoin through year-end. The forecast begins with a short-squeeze rally in July, followed by a sharper correction in August that could drag prices down to test the $50,000 support level. September is projected to carve out a W-shaped bottom, with the actual low and accumulation phase forming in October. From there, a recovery is expected to kick in during November, with Bitcoin potentially climbing back toward the $100,000 mark by December.
The analyst emphasized that the decline since Bitcoin’s June peak reflects a broader unwinding of gains accumulated over the past three years. He noted that historical bear markets have often seen corrections exceeding 80%, and with the current price roughly 50% below its all-time high, there could still be room for further downside.
According to current market analysis, the warning comes amid a period of low volatility and declining trading volumes in the cryptocurrency market. Many investors have been waiting for a clear signal that the bottom is in, but Noname’s analysis suggests that patience may still be required. The analyst’s reference to “fake stability” echoes patterns seen in previous bear markets, where periods of calm were often followed by sharp sell-offs.
Bitcoin price overview
Bitcoin was trading at $64,085.32 at press time, having dropped 0.95% in the past 24 hours. It is a leading coin in the cryptocurrency market, with a market capitalization of $1.28T. Trading volume stood at $17.27B, having surged 20% during the intraday session. The total supply and circulating supply are both 20.05M BTC, while the maximum supply is capped at 21M BTC.
Bitcoin’s price has dropped 49.22% from its all-time high. However, it has shown a massive surge of 131,725,472.23% from its all-time low. This data suggests that BTC has the potential to lead the crypto industry.
Liquidity is still in the market. Will the BTC price fall to grab that liquidity?
The BTC price has remained bearish on the weekly timeframe. Amid this bearish trend, the price has dropped below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs. This move suggests that sellers are in control and have the potential to dominate further.
Based on the technical charts, a strong liquidity zone could lie below the $49K level. If the market is to see a massive bull run, this liquidity zone could act as a catalyst.
If sellers manage to pull the price below the $49K level and volume increases here, it may indicate a liquidity sweep. The increased volume could suggest that huge orders are being filled at this level.
If this liquidity sweep occurs, a massive bull run can be anticipated. Following the sweep, institutions and big investors could push the price toward $100K, or BTC could record a new all-time high.
Conversely, if the BTC price bounces back and climbs above the 200-day EMA, buyer confidence could strengthen. Once the price holds above the EMA, short-term bullish momentum may follow.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s current price action sits at a classic crossroads. The break below both the 100-day and 200-day EMAs confirms sellers hold short-term control, and the unfilled liquidity pocket below $49K remains a magnet the market may still need to test before any sustainable reversal. Noname’s month-by-month roadmap, a July squeeze, an August-September flush toward $50K, October accumulation, and a Q4 recovery toward $100K, which is one plausible path, but it remains a forecast, not a certainty, and should be read as a scenario rather than a guarantee.
What matters most for traders right now is reacting to confirmation rather than anticipating it. A high-volume sweep below $49K followed by a swift reclaim would be the stronger signal of institutional accumulation than the sweep itself. Conversely, a daily/weekly close back above the 200-day EMA would meaningfully shift the structure back in the buyers’ favor and could invite the next leg toward previous highs.
Until either of those triggers plays out, the sideways range is best treated as exactly what Noname calls it, a period of “fake stability,” and not as an entry signal on its own. Risk management, position sizing, and waiting for a decisive break (in either direction) remain more reliable tools than trying to predict the exact week the bottom forms.
Has Bitcoin bottomed out?
Not confirmed yet. Bitcoin is trading below its 100-day and 200-day EMAs, and analyst Noname believes the current sideways movement is “fake stability” rather than a genuine bottom, a pattern that has historically preceded further declines.
How low could Bitcoin drop?
Technical charts point to a major liquidity zone below $49K. Noname’s roadmap projects a corrective move toward the $50,000 support level around August, with the actual cyclical low forming in September–October as a W-shaped bottom.
Can Bitcoin recover to $100K this year?
According to the forecast, yes, but only after the bottoming process completes. The scenario has a short-squeeze rally in July, a flush to $50K in August, a W-bottom in September, accumulation in October, and a recovery pushing toward $100K by December.